Sunderland W 2–0 Watford W: Result & Stats

Sunderland W

2 – 0

Watford W

1/26/2020

FA Women's Cup · 4th RoundThe Energy Check Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sunderland W52%

×Draw20%

Watford W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sunderland WExpected goals in this matchWatford W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.68

Sunderland W

2.34

Watford W

1.68

Sunderland W creates 39% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

2.56

creates per match

2.25

1.11

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Sunderland W

2.56

Watford W

2.25

allows per match

Sunderland W

1.11

Watford W

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sunderland W+0.00on par

Watford W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland W ↓

Watford W →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Sunderland W or draw

72%

Sunderland W or Watford W

80%

Draw or Watford W

48%

Winning margin

Sunderland W wins by 2+

32%

Watford W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sunderland W 1+ goals

90%

Sunderland W 2+ goals

67%

Sunderland W 3+ goals

41%

Watford W 1+ goals

81%

Watford W 2+ goals

50%

Watford W 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Sunderland W (draw refunded)

65%

Watford W (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sunderland W at home — creates 2.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Watford W away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland W attack 2.56 + Watford W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.34

Watford W attack 2.25 + Sunderland W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sunderland W scores more

52%

level

20%

Watford W scores more

28%

Sunderland W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sunderland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff