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Sunderland W vs Southampton W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Sunderland W
Sunderland W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Southampton W
Southampton W
1/14/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 4th RoundEppleton Colliery Football Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sunderland W37%
×Draw22%
Southampton W41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunderland W
1.73
Southampton W
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Sunderland W
2.56
Southampton W
2.56

allows per match

Sunderland W
1.11
Southampton W
0.89

finishing

Sunderland W+0.00on par
Southampton W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland W ↓

Southampton W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sunderland W or draw
59%
Sunderland W or Southampton W
78%
Draw or Southampton W
63%

Winning margin

Sunderland W wins by 2+
19%
Southampton W wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sunderland W 1+ goals
82%
Sunderland W 2+ goals
52%
Sunderland W 3+ goals
25%
Southampton W 1+ goals
84%
Southampton W 2+ goals
54%
Southampton W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Sunderland W (draw refunded)
47%
Southampton W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland W at home — creates 2.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Southampton W away — creates 2.56, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland W attack 2.56 + Southampton W defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.73

Southampton W attack 2.56 + Sunderland W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sunderland W scores more
37%
level
22%
Southampton W scores more
41%

Southampton W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Southampton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Sunderland W 0–2 Southampton W

Southampton W beat Sunderland W 2-0 in FA Women's Cup on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Eppleton Colliery Football Ground in Hetton-le-Hole, Tyne and Wear.