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Sunderland W vs Sheffield W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Sunderland W
Sunderland W
FT
5 – 1
Sheffield W
Sheffield W
4/4/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundAcademy of Light Training Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sunderland W82%
×Draw11%
Sheffield W7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunderland W
3.38
Sheffield W
0.96

Sunderland W creates 252% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sunderland W
2.56
Sheffield W
0.80

allows per match

Sunderland W
1.11
Sheffield W
4.20

finishing

Sunderland W+0.00on par
Sheffield W+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland W ↓

Sheffield W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Sunderland W or draw
93%
Sunderland W or Sheffield W
89%
Draw or Sheffield W
18%

Winning margin

Sunderland W wins by 2+
64%
Sheffield W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sunderland W 1+ goals
96%
Sunderland W 2+ goals
84%
Sunderland W 3+ goals
64%
Sheffield W 1+ goals
62%
Sheffield W 2+ goals
25%
Sheffield W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sunderland W (draw refunded)
92%
Sheffield W (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland W at home — creates 2.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Sheffield W away — creates 0.80, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland W attack 2.56 + Sheffield W defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 3.38

Sheffield W attack 0.80 + Sunderland W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Sunderland W scores more
82%
level
11%
Sheffield W scores more
7%

Sunderland W at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Sunderland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Sunderland W 5–1 Sheffield W

Sunderland W beat Sheffield W 5-1 in FA Women's Cup on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Academy of Light Training Ground in Sunderland, Tyne and Wear.