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Sunderland W vs London City Lionesses W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Sunderland W
Sunderland W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
London City Lionesses W
London City Lionesses W
1/17/2026FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · Round 4Eppleton Colliery Welfare Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sunderland W57%
×Draw20%
London City Lionesses W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunderland W
2.28
London City Lionesses W
1.41

Sunderland W creates 62% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sunderland W
2.56
London City Lionesses W
1.71

allows per match

Sunderland W
1.11
London City Lionesses W
2.00

finishing

Sunderland W+0.00on par
London City Lionesses W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland W ↓

London City Lionesses W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Sunderland W or draw
77%
Sunderland W or London City Lionesses W
80%
Draw or London City Lionesses W
43%

Winning margin

Sunderland W wins by 2+
35%
London City Lionesses W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sunderland W 1+ goals
90%
Sunderland W 2+ goals
66%
Sunderland W 3+ goals
39%
London City Lionesses W 1+ goals
76%
London City Lionesses W 2+ goals
41%
London City Lionesses W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sunderland W (draw refunded)
71%
London City Lionesses W (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland W at home — creates 2.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

London City Lionesses W away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland W attack 2.56 + London City Lionesses W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.28

London City Lionesses W attack 1.71 + Sunderland W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sunderland W scores more
57%
level
20%
London City Lionesses W scores more
23%

Sunderland W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sunderland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Sunderland W 0–1 London City Lionesses W

London City Lionesses W beat Sunderland W 1-0 in FA Women's Cup on January 17, 2026.

The match was played at Eppleton Colliery Welfare Ground in Sunderland.