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Sunderland W vs Huddersfield Town W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Sunderland W
Sunderland W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Huddersfield Town W
Huddersfield Town W
12/8/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundEppleton Colliery Football Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sunderland W62%
×Draw19%
Huddersfield Town W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunderland W
2.47
Huddersfield Town W
1.31

Sunderland W creates 89% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sunderland W
2.56
Huddersfield Town W
1.50

allows per match

Sunderland W
1.11
Huddersfield Town W
2.38

finishing

Sunderland W+0.00on par
Huddersfield Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland W ↓

Huddersfield Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sunderland W or draw
81%
Sunderland W or Huddersfield Town W
81%
Draw or Huddersfield Town W
38%

Winning margin

Sunderland W wins by 2+
41%
Huddersfield Town W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sunderland W 1+ goals
91%
Sunderland W 2+ goals
70%
Sunderland W 3+ goals
44%
Huddersfield Town W 1+ goals
73%
Huddersfield Town W 2+ goals
38%
Huddersfield Town W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sunderland W (draw refunded)
77%
Huddersfield Town W (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland W at home — creates 2.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Huddersfield Town W away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland W attack 2.56 + Huddersfield Town W defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.47

Huddersfield Town W attack 1.50 + Sunderland W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sunderland W scores more
62%
level
19%
Huddersfield Town W scores more
19%

Sunderland W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sunderland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Sunderland W 4–0 Huddersfield Town W

Sunderland W beat Huddersfield Town W 4-0 in FA Women's Cup on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Eppleton Colliery Football Ground in Hetton-le-Hole, Tyne and Wear.