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Sunderland vs West Brom — Championship 2018

Sunderland
Sunderland
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
West Brom
West Brom
12/9/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 20Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sunderland44%
×Draw29%
West Brom27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunderland
1.23
West Brom
0.90

Sunderland creates 37% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 40 away

creates per match

Sunderland
1.25
West Brom
1.19

allows per match

Sunderland
0.61
West Brom
1.21

finishing

Sunderland+0.13scores more
West Brom-0.06on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw
73%
Sunderland or West Brom
71%
Draw or West Brom
56%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+
19%
West Brom wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals
71%
Sunderland 2+ goals
35%
Sunderland 3+ goals
13%
West Brom 1+ goals
59%
West Brom 2+ goals
23%
West Brom 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)
62%
West Brom (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.61 · 8 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.21 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.25 + West Brom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

West Brom attack 1.19 + Sunderland defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sunderland scores more
44%
level
29%
West Brom scores more
27%

Sunderland at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Sunderland 2–1 West Brom

Sunderland beat West Brom 2-1 in Championship on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.