Sunderland 1–2 West Brom: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

West Brom

A. Diallo 19' (pen)

D. Dike 82'

T. Rogić 70'

12/12/2022

Championship · Round 22Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Sunderland42%

×Draw28%

West Brom30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.01

Sunderland

1.26

West Brom

1.01

Sunderland creates 25% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 55 away

1.29

creates per match

1.15

0.88

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Sunderland

1.29

West Brom

1.15

allows per match

Sunderland

0.88

West Brom

1.23

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Sunderland-0.06on par

West Brom-0.04on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

70%

Sunderland or West Brom

72%

Draw or West Brom

58%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

19%

West Brom wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

72%

Sunderland 2+ goals

36%

Sunderland 3+ goals

13%

West Brom 1+ goals

64%

West Brom 2+ goals

27%

West Brom 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

59%

West Brom (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.88 · 26 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.29 + West Brom defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.26

West Brom attack 1.15 + Sunderland defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sunderland scores more

42%

level

28%

West Brom scores more

30%

Sunderland at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

T. Rogić

West Brom · M

7.9

Match Events

19'

A. DialloPenalty

33'

Danny Batth

58'

J. Clarke← E. Embleton

58'

T. Rogić← J. Molumby

64'

D. Dike← B. Thomas-Asante

65'

T. Gardner-Hickman← E. Pieters

65'

A. Reach← C. Townsend

70'

71'

74'

82'

86'

89'

A. Ba← E. Simms

89'

L. Dajaku← A. Pritchard

89'

P. Roberts← D. Batth

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SunderlandWest

Overview

44%Possession56%

11Total Shots10

5Corners5

8Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots10

3On Target4

7Off Target3

1Blocked3

7Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

377Total Passes498

290Accurate Passes413

77%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1