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Sunderland vs West Brom — Premier League 2026

Sunderland
Sunderland
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
West Brom
West Brom
P. van Aanholt 83'
N. Chadli 35'
10/1/2016Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Sunderland41%
×Draw28%
West Brom31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunderland
1.29
West Brom
1.09

Sunderland creates 18% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 94 away

creates per match

Sunderland
1.07
West Brom
0.84

allows per match

Sunderland
1.34
West Brom
1.51

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par
West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw
69%
Sunderland or West Brom
72%
Draw or West Brom
59%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+
18%
West Brom wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals
72%
Sunderland 2+ goals
37%
Sunderland 3+ goals
14%
West Brom 1+ goals
66%
West Brom 2+ goals
30%
West Brom 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)
57%
West Brom (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 73 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.51 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.07 + West Brom defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.29

West Brom attack 0.84 + Sunderland defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sunderland scores more
41%
level
28%
West Brom scores more
31%

Sunderland at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
P. van AanholtSunderlandSunderland · D
7.6

Match Events

27'
Claudio Yacob
35'
N. Chadli↳ M. Phillips
36'
Jan Kirchhoff
56'
P. van Aanholt← J. Kirchhoff
69'
James McClean
72'
J. Rodwell← P. McNair
73'
C. Gardner← J. McClean
83'
P. van Aanholt↳ D. Watmore
90'
Jonny Evans
90'
L. Gooch← W. Khazri
90+4'
H. Robson-Kanu← S. Rondón
90+1'
J. Morrison← N. Chadli

Possession

55%Sunderland

Shots

7Sunderland

Pass accuracy

52%Sunderland

Statistics

SunderlandWest
Overview
55%Possession45%
7Total Shots17
6Corners5
7Fouls13
Shots
7Total Shots17
2On Target7
4Off Target7
1Blocked3
6Inside Box9
1Outside Box8
Passing
55%Possession45%
424Total Passes326
328Accurate Passes233
77%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls13
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Sunderland vs West Brom

Sunderland and West Brom drew 1-1 in Premier League on October 1, 2016.

Goals: N. Chadli (35'), P. van Aanholt (83').

Sunderland controlled possession (55%) and registered 7 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.