Sunderland 1–0 Reading: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Reading

P. Roberts 84'

2/11/2023

Championship · Round 31Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Sunderland45%

×Draw27%

Reading29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.08

Sunderland

1.42

Reading

1.08

Sunderland creates 31% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 112 away

1.34

creates per match

0.99

1.18

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Sunderland

1.34

Reading

0.99

allows per match

Sunderland

1.18

Reading

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par

Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

71%

Sunderland or Reading

73%

Draw or Reading

55%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

22%

Reading wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

76%

Sunderland 2+ goals

41%

Sunderland 3+ goals

17%

Reading 1+ goals

66%

Reading 2+ goals

29%

Reading 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

61%

Reading (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.18 · 74 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.34 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.42

Reading attack 0.99 + Sunderland defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sunderland scores more

45%

level

27%

Reading scores more

29%

Sunderland at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

P. Roberts

Sunderland · M

8.5

Match Events

33'

Andy Yiadom

65'

A. Pritchard← A. Diallo

75'

I. Lihadji← J. Gelhardt

75'

L. O'Nien← D. Neil

77'

Y. Meïté← S. Long

78'

S. Dann← J. Hoilett

80'

J. Bennette← J. Clarke

81'

A. Ba← É. Michut

84'

P. Roberts

87'

T. Fornah← T. Mcintyre

87'

O. Azeez← A. Baba

90+2'

Yakou Méïté

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SunderlandReading

Overview

66%Possession34%

13Total Shots9

4Corners8

7Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots9

5On Target1

7Off Target6

1Blocked2

10Inside Box3

3Outside Box6

Passing

66%Possession34%

526Total Passes263

441Accurate Passes163

84%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls9

0Yellow Cards2

6Offsides2