Sunderland 1–1 Northampton: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Northampton

C. Winchester 87'

S. Hoskins 84'

5/9/2021

League One · Round 46Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Sunderland58%

×Draw23%

Northampton19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.94

Sunderland

1.81

Northampton

0.94

Sunderland creates 93% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 99 away

1.83

creates per match

0.94

0.93

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Sunderland

1.83

Northampton

0.94

allows per match

Sunderland

0.93

Northampton

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par

Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

81%

Sunderland or Northampton

77%

Draw or Northampton

42%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

33%

Northampton wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

84%

Sunderland 2+ goals

54%

Sunderland 3+ goals

27%

Northampton 1+ goals

61%

Northampton 2+ goals

24%

Northampton 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

75%

Northampton (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.93 · 88 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.79 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.83 + Northampton defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.81

Northampton attack 0.94 + Sunderland defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sunderland scores more

58%

level

23%

Northampton scores more

19%

Sunderland at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

J. Jones

Sunderland · M

8.0

Match Events

21'

Mikel Miller

46'

A. McGeady← J. Diamond

52'

C. Maguire← C. McLaughlin

59'

Luke O'Nien

66'

G. Leadbitter← J. Scowen

66'

C. Winchester← M. Power

66'

A. O'Brien← C. Wyke

76'

C. Chukwuemeka← M. Miller

79'

L. Cross← M. Marshall

83'

Bailey Wright

84'

S. Hoskins

86'

B. Ashley-Seal← D. Rose

87'

M. Roberts← R. Watson

87'

C. Winchester

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SunderlandNorthampton

Overview

64%Possession36%

10Total Shots7

8Corners6

13Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots7

4On Target1

5Off Target3

1Blocked3

6Inside Box3

4Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

492Total Passes282

405Accurate Passes193

82%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1