Sunderland 5–0 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Morecambe

L. Dajaku 87'

N. Broadhead 68', 17'

A. Pritchard 56'

R. Stewart 13'

12/7/2021

League One · Round 21Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sunderland63%

×Draw21%

Morecambe16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.91

Sunderland

2.00

Morecambe

0.91

Sunderland creates 120% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 46 away

1.83

creates per match

0.89

0.93

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Sunderland

1.83

Morecambe

0.89

allows per match

Sunderland

0.93

Morecambe

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

84%

Sunderland or Morecambe

79%

Draw or Morecambe

37%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

38%

Morecambe wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

86%

Sunderland 2+ goals

59%

Sunderland 3+ goals

32%

Morecambe 1+ goals

60%

Morecambe 2+ goals

23%

Morecambe 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

79%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.93 · 88 matches

Morecambe away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.83 + Morecambe defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.00

Morecambe attack 0.89 + Sunderland defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sunderland scores more

63%

level

21%

Morecambe scores more

16%

Sunderland at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

N. Broadhead

Sunderland · F

8.7

Match Events

13'

R. Stewart↳ L. Gooch

17'

N. Broadhead↳ L. Gooch

46'

T. Diagouraga← C. Jones

46'

C. Duffus← A. Gnahoua

56'

A. Pritchard↳ D. Neil

58'

E. Embleton← C. Winchester

64'

A. Phillips← A. Wildig

68'

N. Broadhead

71'

Jonah Ayunga

75'

A. O'Brien← R. Stewart

75'

B. Mbunga-Kimpioka← N. Broadhead

87'

L. Dajaku↳ A. O'Brien

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SunderlandMorecambe

Overview

62%Possession38%

17Total Shots9

11Corners1

7Fouls5

Shots

17Total Shots9

8On Target1

3Off Target4

6Blocked4

13Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

549Total Passes341

460Accurate Passes260

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls5

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2