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Sunderland vs Doncaster — League One 2018

Sunderland
Sunderland
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Doncaster
Doncaster
2/13/2021League OneLeague One · Round 29Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Sunderland54%
×Draw24%
Doncaster22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunderland
1.72
Doncaster
1.01

Sunderland creates 70% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 108 away

creates per match

Sunderland
1.83
Doncaster
1.13

allows per match

Sunderland
0.90
Doncaster
1.61

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par
Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Doncaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw
78%
Sunderland or Doncaster
76%
Draw or Doncaster
46%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+
30%
Doncaster wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals
82%
Sunderland 2+ goals
51%
Sunderland 3+ goals
25%
Doncaster 1+ goals
64%
Doncaster 2+ goals
27%
Doncaster 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)
71%
Doncaster (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.90 · 92 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.83 + Doncaster defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.72

Doncaster attack 1.13 + Sunderland defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sunderland scores more
54%
level
24%
Doncaster scores more
22%

Sunderland at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sunderland vs Doncaster

Sunderland beat Doncaster 4-1 in League One on February 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.