Sunderland 1–1 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bristol City

2/18/2023

Championship · Round 33Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sunderland46%

×Draw29%

Bristol City25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.86

Sunderland

1.29

Bristol City

0.86

Sunderland creates 50% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 46 away

1.25

creates per match

1.12

0.61

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Sunderland

1.25

Bristol City

1.12

allows per match

Sunderland

0.61

Bristol City

1.34

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Sunderland+0.13scores more

Bristol City+0.01on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

75%

Sunderland or Bristol City

71%

Draw or Bristol City

54%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

21%

Bristol City wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

72%

Sunderland 2+ goals

37%

Sunderland 3+ goals

14%

Bristol City 1+ goals

58%

Bristol City 2+ goals

21%

Bristol City 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

65%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.61 · 8 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.34 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.25 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bristol City attack 1.12 + Sunderland defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sunderland scores more

46%

level

29%

Bristol City scores more

25%

Sunderland at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff