Sumqayıt 0–2 Qarabag: Result & Stats | Premyer Liqa

Sumqayıt

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Qarabag

3/3/2025

Premyer Liqa · Round 25Mehdi Hüseynzadə adına Sumqayıt şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Sumqayıt18%

×Draw23%

Qarabag59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SumqayıtExpected goals in this matchQarabag

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.87

1.81

Sumqayıt

0.87

Qarabag

1.81

Qarabag creates 108% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 110 away

1.03

creates per match

2.15

1.48

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Sumqayıt

1.03

Qarabag

2.15

allows per match

Sumqayıt

1.48

Qarabag

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sumqayıt+0.00on par

Qarabag+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sumqayıt ↓

Qarabag →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sumqayıt or draw

41%

Sumqayıt or Qarabag

77%

Draw or Qarabag

82%

Winning margin

Sumqayıt wins by 2+

6%

Qarabag wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Sumqayıt 1+ goals

58%

Sumqayıt 2+ goals

22%

Sumqayıt 3+ goals

6%

Qarabag 1+ goals

84%

Qarabag 2+ goals

54%

Qarabag 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Sumqayıt (draw refunded)

23%

Qarabag (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sumqayıt at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.48 · 108 matches

Qarabag away — creates 2.15, concedes 0.71 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sumqayıt attack 1.03 + Qarabag defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.87

Qarabag attack 2.15 + Sumqayıt defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sumqayıt scores more

18%

level

23%

Qarabag scores more

59%

Qarabag at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Qarabag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff