Šumperk 1–4 Unie Hlubina: Result & Stats

Šumperk

FT

1 – 4

Unie Hlubina

3/17/2024

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 17Městský Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Šumperk32%

×Draw25%

Unie Hlubina43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŠumperkExpected goals in this matchUnie Hlubina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.49

Šumperk

1.25

Unie Hlubina

1.49

Unie Hlubina creates 19% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 28 away

1.43

creates per match

1.68

1.30

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Šumperk

1.43

Unie Hlubina

1.68

allows per match

Šumperk

1.30

Unie Hlubina

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Šumperk+0.00on par

Unie Hlubina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šumperk ↓

Unie Hlubina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Šumperk or draw

57%

Šumperk or Unie Hlubina

75%

Draw or Unie Hlubina

68%

Winning margin

Šumperk wins by 2+

13%

Unie Hlubina wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Šumperk 1+ goals

71%

Šumperk 2+ goals

36%

Šumperk 3+ goals

13%

Unie Hlubina 1+ goals

77%

Unie Hlubina 2+ goals

44%

Unie Hlubina 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Šumperk (draw refunded)

43%

Unie Hlubina (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šumperk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Unie Hlubina away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šumperk attack 1.43 + Unie Hlubina defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Unie Hlubina attack 1.68 + Šumperk defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Šumperk scores more

32%

level

25%

Unie Hlubina scores more

43%

Unie Hlubina at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Unie Hlubina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff