Šumperk 1–2 Bospor Bohumín: Result & Stats

Šumperk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bospor Bohumín

11/5/2023

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 14Městský Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Šumperk36%

×Draw24%

Bospor Bohumín39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŠumperkExpected goals in this matchBospor Bohumín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.56

Šumperk

1.49

Bospor Bohumín

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 77 away

1.43

creates per match

1.81

1.30

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Šumperk

1.43

Bospor Bohumín

1.81

allows per match

Šumperk

1.30

Bospor Bohumín

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Šumperk+0.00on par

Bospor Bohumín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šumperk ↓

Bospor Bohumín →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Šumperk or draw

61%

Šumperk or Bospor Bohumín

76%

Draw or Bospor Bohumín

64%

Winning margin

Šumperk wins by 2+

17%

Bospor Bohumín wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Šumperk 1+ goals

77%

Šumperk 2+ goals

44%

Šumperk 3+ goals

19%

Bospor Bohumín 1+ goals

79%

Bospor Bohumín 2+ goals

46%

Bospor Bohumín 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Šumperk (draw refunded)

48%

Bospor Bohumín (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šumperk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Bospor Bohumín away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šumperk attack 1.43 + Bospor Bohumín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.49

Bospor Bohumín attack 1.81 + Šumperk defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Šumperk scores more

36%

level

24%

Bospor Bohumín scores more

39%

Bospor Bohumín at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bospor Bohumín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff