Šumperk 1–2 Bílovec: Result & Stats

Šumperk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bílovec

6/14/2024

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 30Městský Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Šumperk37%

×Draw25%

Bílovec38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŠumperkExpected goals in this matchBílovec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.46

Šumperk

1.44

Bílovec

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 71 away

1.43

creates per match

1.63

1.30

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Šumperk

1.43

Bílovec

1.63

allows per match

Šumperk

1.30

Bílovec

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Šumperk+0.00on par

Bílovec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šumperk ↓

Bílovec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Šumperk or draw

62%

Šumperk or Bílovec

75%

Draw or Bílovec

63%

Winning margin

Šumperk wins by 2+

17%

Bílovec wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Šumperk 1+ goals

76%

Šumperk 2+ goals

42%

Šumperk 3+ goals

18%

Bílovec 1+ goals

77%

Bílovec 2+ goals

43%

Bílovec 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Šumperk (draw refunded)

49%

Bílovec (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šumperk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Bílovec away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.44 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šumperk attack 1.43 + Bílovec defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

Bílovec attack 1.63 + Šumperk defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Šumperk scores more

37%

level

25%

Bílovec scores more

38%

Bílovec at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bílovec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff