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Šumadija Aranđelovac vs Jedinstvo Ub — Srpska Liga - West 2025

Šumadija Aranđelovac
Šumadija Aranđelovac
FT
1 – 2
Jedinstvo Ub
Jedinstvo Ub
10/24/2020Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 13Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Šumadija Aranđelovac15%
×Draw19%
Jedinstvo Ub66%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šumadija Aranđelovac
0.94
Jedinstvo Ub
2.23

Jedinstvo Ub creates 137% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 4 away

creates per match

Šumadija Aranđelovac
0.88
Jedinstvo Ub
2.75

allows per match

Šumadija Aranđelovac
1.72
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00

finishing

Šumadija Aranđelovac+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šumadija Aranđelovac ↓

Jedinstvo Ub →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Šumadija Aranđelovac or draw
34%
Šumadija Aranđelovac or Jedinstvo Ub
81%
Draw or Jedinstvo Ub
85%

Winning margin

Šumadija Aranđelovac wins by 2+
5%
Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Šumadija Aranđelovac 1+ goals
61%
Šumadija Aranđelovac 2+ goals
24%
Šumadija Aranđelovac 3+ goals
7%
Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals
89%
Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals
65%
Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Šumadija Aranđelovac (draw refunded)
18%
Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šumadija Aranđelovac at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

Jedinstvo Ub away — creates 2.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šumadija Aranđelovac attack 0.88 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Jedinstvo Ub attack 2.75 + Šumadija Aranđelovac defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Šumadija Aranđelovac scores more
15%
level
19%
Jedinstvo Ub scores more
66%

Jedinstvo Ub at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Jedinstvo Ub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Šumadija Aranđelovac vs Jedinstvo Ub

Jedinstvo Ub beat Šumadija Aranđelovac 2-1 in Srpska Liga - West on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Aranđelovac.