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Sulori vs Merani Tbilisi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Sulori
Sulori
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Merani Tbilisi
Merani Tbilisi
11/18/2011Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Group B - 14Stadioni Grigol Nikoleishvili

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sulori34%
×Draw24%
Merani Tbilisi42%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sulori
1.45
Merani Tbilisi
1.62

Merani Tbilisi creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 63 away

creates per match

Sulori
0.86
Merani Tbilisi
1.37

allows per match

Sulori
1.86
Merani Tbilisi
2.05

finishing

Sulori+0.00on par
Merani Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sulori ↓

Merani Tbilisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sulori or draw
58%
Sulori or Merani Tbilisi
76%
Draw or Merani Tbilisi
66%

Winning margin

Sulori wins by 2+
16%
Merani Tbilisi wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sulori 1+ goals
77%
Sulori 2+ goals
42%
Sulori 3+ goals
18%
Merani Tbilisi 1+ goals
80%
Merani Tbilisi 2+ goals
48%
Merani Tbilisi 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sulori (draw refunded)
45%
Merani Tbilisi (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sulori at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Merani Tbilisi away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.05 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sulori attack 0.86 + Merani Tbilisi defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.45

Merani Tbilisi attack 1.37 + Sulori defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sulori scores more
34%
level
24%
Merani Tbilisi scores more
42%

Merani Tbilisi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Merani Tbilisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Sulori 1–2 Merani Tbilisi

Merani Tbilisi beat Sulori 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on November 18, 2011.

The match was played at Stadioni Grigol Nikoleishvili in Vani.