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Sulori vs Dinamo Tbilisi II — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Sulori
Sulori
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo Tbilisi II
Dinamo Tbilisi II
11/6/2012Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Group A - 12Stadioni Grigol Nikoleishvili

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sulori33%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Tbilisi II43%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sulori
1.41
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.65

Dinamo Tbilisi II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 61 away

creates per match

Sulori
0.86
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.43

allows per match

Sulori
1.86
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.95

finishing

Sulori+0.00on par
Dinamo Tbilisi II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sulori ↓

Dinamo Tbilisi II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sulori or draw
57%
Sulori or Dinamo Tbilisi II
76%
Draw or Dinamo Tbilisi II
67%

Winning margin

Sulori wins by 2+
15%
Dinamo Tbilisi II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sulori 1+ goals
76%
Sulori 2+ goals
41%
Sulori 3+ goals
17%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 1+ goals
81%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 2+ goals
49%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Sulori (draw refunded)
43%
Dinamo Tbilisi II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sulori at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Dinamo Tbilisi II away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.95 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sulori attack 0.86 + Dinamo Tbilisi II defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.41

Dinamo Tbilisi II attack 1.43 + Sulori defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sulori scores more
33%
level
24%
Dinamo Tbilisi II scores more
43%

Dinamo Tbilisi II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dinamo Tbilisi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Sulori 1–3 Dinamo Tbilisi II

Dinamo Tbilisi II beat Sulori 3-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on November 6, 2012.

The match was played at Stadioni Grigol Nikoleishvili in Vani.