Sukhothai FC 3–0 Navy FC: Result & Stats

Sukhothai FC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Navy FC

10/23/2021

Thai League 2 · Round 10Thung Talay Luang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sukhothai FC67%

×Draw18%

Navy FC15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sukhothai FCExpected goals in this matchNavy FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.07

Sukhothai FC

2.41

Navy FC

1.07

Sukhothai FC creates 125% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

2.76

creates per match

1.02

1.12

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Sukhothai FC

2.76

Navy FC

1.02

allows per match

Sukhothai FC

1.12

Navy FC

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sukhothai FC+0.00on par

Navy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sukhothai FC ↓

Navy FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Sukhothai FC or draw

85%

Sukhothai FC or Navy FC

82%

Draw or Navy FC

33%

Winning margin

Sukhothai FC wins by 2+

44%

Navy FC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sukhothai FC 1+ goals

91%

Sukhothai FC 2+ goals

69%

Sukhothai FC 3+ goals

43%

Navy FC 1+ goals

66%

Navy FC 2+ goals

29%

Navy FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)

81%

Navy FC (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sukhothai FC at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Navy FC away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sukhothai FC attack 2.76 + Navy FC defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.41

Navy FC attack 1.02 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sukhothai FC scores more

67%

level

18%

Navy FC scores more

15%

Sukhothai FC at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Sukhothai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff