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Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United — FA Cup 2018

Sukhothai FC
Sukhothai FCadvanced
AET
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Muangthong United
Muangthong United
12/20/2023FA CupFA Cup · Round of 32Thung Talay Luang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sukhothai FC42%
×Draw19%
Muangthong United39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sukhothai FC
2.38
Muangthong United
2.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sukhothai FC
4.00
Muangthong United
3.25

allows per match

Sukhothai FC
1.33
Muangthong United
0.75

finishing

Sukhothai FC+0.00on par
Muangthong United+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sukhothai FC ↓

Muangthong United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Sukhothai FC or draw
61%
Sukhothai FC or Muangthong United
81%
Draw or Muangthong United
58%

Winning margin

Sukhothai FC wins by 2+
24%
Muangthong United wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sukhothai FC 1+ goals
91%
Sukhothai FC 2+ goals
68%
Sukhothai FC 3+ goals
42%
Muangthong United 1+ goals
90%
Muangthong United 2+ goals
66%
Muangthong United 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)
52%
Muangthong United (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sukhothai FC at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Muangthong United away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sukhothai FC attack 4.00 + Muangthong United defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 2.38

Muangthong United attack 3.25 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sukhothai FC scores more
42%
level
19%
Muangthong United scores more
39%

Sukhothai FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sukhothai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United

Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United drew 2-2 in FA Cup on December 20, 2023.

The match was played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium in Sukhothai.