Sukhothai FC 4–0 Muang Loei United: Result & Stats

Sukhothai FC

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Muang Loei United

1/29/2025

FA Cup · Round of 32Thung Talay Luang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sukhothai FC58%

×Draw18%

Muang Loei United23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sukhothai FCExpected goals in this matchMuang Loei United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.67

Sukhothai FC

2.67

Muang Loei United

1.67

Sukhothai FC creates 60% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

4.00

creates per match

2.00

1.33

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Sukhothai FC

4.00

Muang Loei United

2.00

allows per match

Sukhothai FC

1.33

Muang Loei United

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sukhothai FC+0.00on par

Muang Loei United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sukhothai FC ↓

Muang Loei United →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Sukhothai FC or draw

77%

Sukhothai FC or Muang Loei United

82%

Draw or Muang Loei United

42%

Winning margin

Sukhothai FC wins by 2+

38%

Muang Loei United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sukhothai FC 1+ goals

93%

Sukhothai FC 2+ goals

74%

Sukhothai FC 3+ goals

49%

Muang Loei United 1+ goals

81%

Muang Loei United 2+ goals

50%

Muang Loei United 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)

71%

Muang Loei United (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sukhothai FC at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Muang Loei United away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sukhothai FC attack 4.00 + Muang Loei United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Muang Loei United attack 2.00 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sukhothai FC scores more

58%

level

18%

Muang Loei United scores more

23%

Sukhothai FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sukhothai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff