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Sukhothai FC vs Kabin United — FA Cup 2018

Sukhothai FC
Sukhothai FCadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Kabin United
Kabin United
2/28/2024FA CupFA Cup · Round of 16Thung Talay Luang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sukhothai FC59%
×Draw18%
Kabin United23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sukhothai FC
2.88
Kabin United
1.79

Sukhothai FC creates 61% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sukhothai FC
4.00
Kabin United
2.25

allows per match

Sukhothai FC
1.33
Kabin United
1.75

finishing

Sukhothai FC+0.00on par
Kabin United+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sukhothai FC ↓

Kabin United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Sukhothai FC or draw
77%
Sukhothai FC or Kabin United
82%
Draw or Kabin United
41%

Winning margin

Sukhothai FC wins by 2+
40%
Kabin United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sukhothai FC 1+ goals
94%
Sukhothai FC 2+ goals
78%
Sukhothai FC 3+ goals
54%
Kabin United 1+ goals
83%
Kabin United 2+ goals
53%
Kabin United 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)
72%
Kabin United (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sukhothai FC at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Kabin United away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sukhothai FC attack 4.00 + Kabin United defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.88

Kabin United attack 2.25 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sukhothai FC scores more
59%
level
18%
Kabin United scores more
23%

Sukhothai FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sukhothai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sukhothai FC vs Kabin United

Sukhothai FC beat Kabin United 3-1 in FA Cup on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium in Sukhothai.