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Sukhothai FC vs Chainat — Thai League 2 2018

Sukhothai FC
Sukhothai FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Chainat
Chainat
1/29/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 21Thung Talay Luang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sukhothai FC61%
×Draw20%
Chainat19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sukhothai FC
2.13
Chainat
1.10

Sukhothai FC creates 94% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 105 away

creates per match

Sukhothai FC
2.76
Chainat
1.07

allows per match

Sukhothai FC
1.12
Chainat
1.49

finishing

Sukhothai FC+0.00on par
Chainat+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sukhothai FC ↓

Chainat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sukhothai FC or draw
81%
Sukhothai FC or Chainat
80%
Draw or Chainat
39%

Winning margin

Sukhothai FC wins by 2+
38%
Chainat wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sukhothai FC 1+ goals
88%
Sukhothai FC 2+ goals
63%
Sukhothai FC 3+ goals
35%
Chainat 1+ goals
67%
Chainat 2+ goals
30%
Chainat 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)
76%
Chainat (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sukhothai FC at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Chainat away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.49 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sukhothai FC attack 2.76 + Chainat defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 2.13

Chainat attack 1.07 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sukhothai FC scores more
61%
level
20%
Chainat scores more
19%

Sukhothai FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sukhothai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sukhothai FC vs Chainat

Sukhothai FC beat Chainat 3-0 in Thai League 2 on January 29, 2022.

The match was played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium in Sukhothai.