Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Suhul Shire vs Jimma Aba Jifar — Premier League 2019

Suhul Shire
Suhul Shire
FT
1 – 1
Jimma Aba Jifar
Jimma Aba Jifar
1/25/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Shire Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Suhul Shire39%
×Draw32%
Jimma Aba Jifar29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suhul Shire
1.02
Jimma Aba Jifar
0.84

Suhul Shire creates 21% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 35 away

creates per match

Suhul Shire
0.71
Jimma Aba Jifar
0.71

allows per match

Suhul Shire
0.98
Jimma Aba Jifar
1.34

finishing

Suhul Shire+0.00on par
Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suhul Shire ↓

Jimma Aba Jifar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Suhul Shire or draw
71%
Suhul Shire or Jimma Aba Jifar
68%
Draw or Jimma Aba Jifar
61%

Winning margin

Suhul Shire wins by 2+
15%
Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Suhul Shire 1+ goals
64%
Suhul Shire 2+ goals
27%
Suhul Shire 3+ goals
8%
Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals
57%
Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals
21%
Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Suhul Shire (draw refunded)
57%
Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suhul Shire at home — creates 0.71, concedes 0.98 · 45 matches

Jimma Aba Jifar away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suhul Shire attack 0.71 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.02

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.71 + Suhul Shire defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Suhul Shire scores more
39%
level
32%
Jimma Aba Jifar scores more
29%

Suhul Shire at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Suhul Shire will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Suhul Shire vs Jimma Aba Jifar

Suhul Shire and Jimma Aba Jifar drew 1-1 in Premier League on January 25, 2020.

The match was played at Shire Stadium in Shire.