Suduva Marijampole 0–4 Kauno Žalgiris

Suduva Marijampole

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Kauno Žalgiris

A. Benchaib 50'

D. Pavlovic 49', 37'

Y. Karashima 20'

1/17/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Suduva Marijampole18%

×Draw23%

Kauno Žalgiris59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suduva MarijampoleExpected goals in this matchKauno Žalgiris

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.77

Suduva Marijampole

0.85

Kauno Žalgiris

1.77

Kauno Žalgiris creates 108% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

1.45

creates per match

2.00

1.55

allows per match

0.25

creates per match

Suduva Marijampole

1.45

Kauno Žalgiris

2.00

allows per match

Suduva Marijampole

1.55

Kauno Žalgiris

0.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par

Kauno Žalgiris+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suduva Marijampole ↓

Kauno Žalgiris →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–113%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Suduva Marijampole or draw

41%

Suduva Marijampole or Kauno Žalgiris

77%

Draw or Kauno Žalgiris

82%

Winning margin

Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+

6%

Kauno Žalgiris wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals

57%

Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals

21%

Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals

5%

Kauno Žalgiris 1+ goals

83%

Kauno Žalgiris 2+ goals

53%

Kauno Žalgiris 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)

23%

Kauno Žalgiris (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suduva Marijampole at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Kauno Žalgiris away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suduva Marijampole attack 1.45 + Kauno Žalgiris defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.85

Kauno Žalgiris attack 2.00 + Suduva Marijampole defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Suduva Marijampole scores more

18%

level

23%

Kauno Žalgiris scores more

59%

Kauno Žalgiris at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kauno Žalgiris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

37'

49'

50'

Suduva

Kauno

Manager: Donatas Vencevicius

Manager: Eivinas Cerniauskas