Suduva Marijampole 2–0 Jonava: Result & Stats

Suduva Marijampole

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jonava

S. Hamulic 90+5'

K. Mbombo 44'

4/24/2022

A Lyga · Round 9Hikvision arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Suduva Marijampole69%

×Draw19%

Jonava12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suduva MarijampoleExpected goals in this matchJonava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

0.77

Suduva Marijampole

2.18

Jonava

0.77

Suduva Marijampole creates 183% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 24 away

1.57

creates per match

0.71

0.83

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Suduva Marijampole

1.57

Jonava

0.71

allows per match

Suduva Marijampole

0.83

Jonava

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par

Jonava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suduva Marijampole ↓

Jonava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Suduva Marijampole or draw

88%

Suduva Marijampole or Jonava

81%

Draw or Jonava

31%

Winning margin

Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+

45%

Jonava wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals

89%

Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals

64%

Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals

37%

Jonava 1+ goals

54%

Jonava 2+ goals

18%

Jonava 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)

85%

Jonava (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suduva Marijampole at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.83 · 128 matches

Jonava away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.79 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suduva Marijampole attack 1.57 + Jonava defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.18

Jonava attack 0.71 + Suduva Marijampole defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Suduva Marijampole scores more

69%

level

19%

Jonava scores more

12%

Suduva Marijampole at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Suduva Marijampole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

A. Rocys

44'

K. Mbombo

46'

Xabi Auzmendi← Y. Protasov

54'

Luiz Matheus

56'

D. Vasin

59'

M. Pavlovski

59'

L. Čepkauskas← Y. Kawachi

63'

J. Jorrín← T. Buzas

67'

L. Matcharashvili← K. Mbombo

78'

L. Matcharashvili

81'

G. Vasylius← A. Rocys

83'

L. Martorell

84'

L. Zingertas← L. Matcharashvili

90+2'

B. Spietinis

90+2'

L. Zingertas

90+5'

S. Hamulic

Suduva

Jonava

12

4

40

22

19

23

▼

Rocys

8

Khamelyuk

20

▼

Buzas

14

▼

77

7

55

19

15

29

13

3

88

17

23

▼

Protasov

22

⚽

▼

Mbombo

97

⚽

Hamulic

Manager: Miguel Moreira

46'▲Xabi Auzmendi←▼Y. Protasov

67'▲L. Matcharashvili←▼K. Mbombo

84'▲L. Zingertas←▼L. Matcharashvili

Suduva Marijampole substitutes

11Auzmendi7Matcharashvili9Zingertas1Giannikoglou6Leimonas10Rommens28Burdzilauskas77Sacramento99Stebrys

Manager: Y. Lutsenko

59'▲L. Čepkauskas←▼Y. Kawachi

63'▲J. Jorrín←▼T. Buzas

81'▲G. Vasylius←▼A. Rocys

Jonava substitutes

11Čepkauskas17Jorrín13Vasylius5Pope16Matuzas47Tapia9Osauskas99Ganusauskas97Silva

Match Recap: Suduva Marijampole vs Jonava

Suduva Marijampole beat Jonava 2-0 in A Lyga on April 24, 2022.

Goals: K. Mbombo (44'), S. Hamulic (90+5').

The match was played at Hikvision arena in Marijampolė.

Suduva Marijampole vs Jonava — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Suduva Marijampole vs Jonava