Suduva Marijampole 2–1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Suduva Marijampole

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

J. Tadic 55'

Renan Oliveira 11'

L. Antal 9' (pen)

11/27/2019

A Lyga · Championship Round - 5Marijampolės sporto centro stadione (Marijampolė)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Suduva Marijampole32%

×Draw26%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius42%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suduva MarijampoleExpected goals in this matchFK Zalgiris Vilnius

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.42

Suduva Marijampole

1.21

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.42

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 17% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 141 away

1.57

creates per match

2.02

0.82

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Suduva Marijampole

1.57

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2.02

allows per match

Suduva Marijampole

0.82

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suduva Marijampole ↓

FK Zalgiris Vilnius →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Suduva Marijampole or draw

58%

Suduva Marijampole or FK Zalgiris Vilnius

74%

Draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius

68%

Winning margin

Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+

13%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals

70%

Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals

34%

Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals

12%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals

76%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals

41%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)

43%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suduva Marijampole at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.82 · 126 matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius away — creates 2.02, concedes 0.84 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suduva Marijampole attack 1.57 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.21

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 2.02 + Suduva Marijampole defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Suduva Marijampole scores more

32%

level

26%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more

42%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

L. AntalPenalty

11'

Renan Oliveira

55'

J. Tadic

Suduva

FK

12

5

19

23

13

8

⚽

7

9

16

14

10

12

82

11

15

30

23

32

8

⚽

Oliveira

22

Verbickas

17

Matulevič

77

⚽

Tadic

Manager: V. Cheburin

Suduva Marijampole substitutes

3Bručić4Sirgedas6Leimonas13Plūkas21Golubickas25Pušić43Skamarakas

Manager: João Martins

FK Zalgiris Vilnius substitutes

1Vitkauskas3Freidgeimas11Filipov22Morer33Šimkus81Mikulenas96Jarusevičius