FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1–0 Suduva Marijampole

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Suduva Marijampole

3/10/2026

A Lyga · Round 4Sportima Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius51%

×Draw24%

Suduva Marijampole25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Zalgiris VilniusExpected goals in this matchSuduva Marijampole

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.14

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.72

Suduva Marijampole

1.14

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 51% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 127 away

2.14

creates per match

1.39

0.88

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2.14

Suduva Marijampole

1.39

allows per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

0.88

Suduva Marijampole

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓

Suduva Marijampole →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw

75%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Suduva Marijampole

76%

Draw or Suduva Marijampole

49%

Winning margin

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+

28%

Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals

82%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals

51%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals

25%

Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals

68%

Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals

32%

Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)

67%

Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.88 · 127 matches

Suduva Marijampole away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.30 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 2.14 + Suduva Marijampole defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.72

Suduva Marijampole attack 1.39 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more

51%

level

24%

Suduva Marijampole scores more

25%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff