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Sūduva II vs Trakai II — 1 Lyga 2026

Sūduva II
Sūduva II
FT
1 – 0
Trakai II
Trakai II
5/7/20211 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 7Hikvision Football Indoor Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sūduva II35%
×Draw26%
Trakai II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sūduva II
1.31
Trakai II
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 66 away

creates per match

Sūduva II
0.85
Trakai II
1.52

allows per match

Sūduva II
1.31
Trakai II
1.77

finishing

Sūduva II+0.00on par
Trakai II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sūduva II ↓

Trakai II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sūduva II or draw
60%
Sūduva II or Trakai II
74%
Draw or Trakai II
65%

Winning margin

Sūduva II wins by 2+
15%
Trakai II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sūduva II 1+ goals
73%
Sūduva II 2+ goals
38%
Sūduva II 3+ goals
14%
Trakai II 1+ goals
76%
Trakai II 2+ goals
41%
Trakai II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sūduva II (draw refunded)
47%
Trakai II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sūduva II at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Trakai II away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sūduva II attack 0.85 + Trakai II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.31

Trakai II attack 1.52 + Sūduva II defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sūduva II scores more
35%
level
26%
Trakai II scores more
40%

Trakai II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Trakai II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Sūduva II 1–0 Trakai II

Sūduva II beat Trakai II 1-0 in 1 Lyga on May 7, 2021.

The match was played at Hikvision Football Indoor Arena in Marijampolė.