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Sūduva II vs Panevėžys II — 1 Lyga 2026

Sūduva II
Sūduva II
FT
1 – 3
Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
J. Nkololo 25'
F. Steponavicius 90+1'
N. Luksys 76'
E. Abramavicius 56'
7/3/20211 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 13Hikvision arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sūduva II41%
×Draw25%
Panevėžys II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sūduva II
1.52
Panevėžys II
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 81 away

creates per match

Sūduva II
0.85
Panevėžys II
1.47

allows per match

Sūduva II
1.31
Panevėžys II
2.19

finishing

Sūduva II+0.00on par
Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sūduva II ↓

Panevėžys II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sūduva II or draw
65%
Sūduva II or Panevėžys II
75%
Draw or Panevėžys II
59%

Winning margin

Sūduva II wins by 2+
20%
Panevėžys II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sūduva II 1+ goals
78%
Sūduva II 2+ goals
45%
Sūduva II 3+ goals
20%
Panevėžys II 1+ goals
75%
Panevėžys II 2+ goals
40%
Panevėžys II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sūduva II (draw refunded)
54%
Panevėžys II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sūduva II at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Panevėžys II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.19 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sūduva II attack 0.85 + Panevėžys II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.52

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Sūduva II defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sūduva II scores more
41%
level
25%
Panevėžys II scores more
35%

Sūduva II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sūduva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
J. Nkololo
56'
E. Abramavicius
60'
F. OnwudiweMissed penalty
76'
N. Luksys
90+1'
F. Steponavicius

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sūduva II vs Panevėžys II

Panevėžys II beat Sūduva II 3-1 in 1 Lyga on July 3, 2021.

Goals: J. Nkololo (25'), E. Abramavicius (56'), N. Luksys (76'), F. Steponavicius (90+1').

The match was played at Hikvision arena in Marijampolė.