Sūduva II 1–0 Kauno Žalgiris II: Result & Stats

Sūduva II

FT

1 – 0

Kauno Žalgiris II

9/24/2021

1 Lyga · Round 23Hikvision arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sūduva II44%

×Draw26%

Kauno Žalgiris II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sūduva IIExpected goals in this matchKauno Žalgiris II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.18

Sūduva II

1.49

Kauno Žalgiris II

1.18

Sūduva II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 77 away

0.85

creates per match

1.05

1.31

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Sūduva II

0.85

Kauno Žalgiris II

1.05

allows per match

Sūduva II

1.31

Kauno Žalgiris II

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sūduva II+0.00on par

Kauno Žalgiris II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sūduva II ↓

Kauno Žalgiris II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sūduva II or draw

70%

Sūduva II or Kauno Žalgiris II

74%

Draw or Kauno Žalgiris II

56%

Winning margin

Sūduva II wins by 2+

22%

Kauno Žalgiris II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sūduva II 1+ goals

77%

Sūduva II 2+ goals

44%

Sūduva II 3+ goals

19%

Kauno Žalgiris II 1+ goals

69%

Kauno Žalgiris II 2+ goals

33%

Kauno Žalgiris II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sūduva II (draw refunded)

60%

Kauno Žalgiris II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sūduva II at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Kauno Žalgiris II away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.13 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sūduva II attack 0.85 + Kauno Žalgiris II defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.49

Kauno Žalgiris II attack 1.05 + Sūduva II defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sūduva II scores more

44%

level

26%

Kauno Žalgiris II scores more

30%

Sūduva II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sūduva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff