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Sūduva II vs BFA — 1 Lyga 2026

Sūduva II
Sūduva II
FT
3 – 3
BFA
BFA
5/14/20211 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 8Hikvision Football Indoor Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sūduva II40%
×Draw25%
BFA35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sūduva II
1.45
BFA
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 104 away

creates per match

Sūduva II
0.85
BFA
1.34

allows per match

Sūduva II
1.31
BFA
2.05

finishing

Sūduva II+0.00on par
BFA+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sūduva II ↓

BFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sūduva II or draw
65%
Sūduva II or BFA
75%
Draw or BFA
60%

Winning margin

Sūduva II wins by 2+
19%
BFA wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sūduva II 1+ goals
77%
Sūduva II 2+ goals
42%
Sūduva II 3+ goals
18%
BFA 1+ goals
74%
BFA 2+ goals
38%
BFA 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sūduva II (draw refunded)
54%
BFA (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sūduva II at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

BFA away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sūduva II attack 0.85 + BFA defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.45

BFA attack 1.34 + Sūduva II defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sūduva II scores more
40%
level
25%
BFA scores more
35%

Sūduva II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sūduva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sūduva II vs BFA

Sūduva II and BFA drew 3-3 in 1 Lyga on May 14, 2021.

The match was played at Hikvision Football Indoor Arena in Marijampolė.