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Suduroy vs HB Torshavn — Meistaradeildin 2019

Suduroy
Suduroy
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
HB Torshavn
HB Torshavn
P. Augustinussen 60'
E. Pedersen 72'
J. Thomsen 36'
8/4/2025MeistaradeildinMeistaradeildin · Round 17Vesturi á Eiðinum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Suduroy12%
×Draw16%
HB Torshavn72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suduroy
1.02
HB Torshavn
2.67

HB Torshavn creates 162% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 103 away

creates per match

Suduroy
1.00
HB Torshavn
2.18

allows per match

Suduroy
3.15
HB Torshavn
1.05

finishing

Suduroy+0.00on par
HB Torshavn+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suduroy ↓

HB Torshavn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Suduroy or draw
28%
Suduroy or HB Torshavn
84%
Draw or HB Torshavn
88%

Winning margin

Suduroy wins by 2+
4%
HB Torshavn wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Suduroy 1+ goals
64%
Suduroy 2+ goals
27%
Suduroy 3+ goals
8%
HB Torshavn 1+ goals
93%
HB Torshavn 2+ goals
74%
HB Torshavn 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Suduroy (draw refunded)
15%
HB Torshavn (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suduroy at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

HB Torshavn away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.05 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suduroy attack 1.00 + HB Torshavn defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

HB Torshavn attack 2.18 + Suduroy defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Suduroy scores more
12%
level
16%
HB Torshavn scores more
72%

HB Torshavn at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "HB Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
E. Champang← E. Champang
20'
R. Reinholds
22'
F. HolmMissed penalty
36'
J. Thomsen
60'
P. Augustinussen↳ S. Bech
60'
E. Pedersen← B. Klein
60'
A. Johannesen← E. Mouritsen
62'
O. Thomsen
65'
D. Godtfred← D. Godtfred
72'
E. Pedersen↳ A. Dam
74'
J. Leo
75'
F. Holm
83'
A. Johannesen
88'
E. Owusu← E. Owusu
89'
O. Thomsen← O. Thomsen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Suduroy vs HB Torshavn

HB Torshavn beat Suduroy 2-1 in Meistaradeildin on August 4, 2025.

Goals: J. Thomsen (36'), P. Augustinussen (60'), E. Pedersen (72').

The match was played at Vesturi á Eiðinum in Vágur, Suðuroy.