Sudtirol 0–1 Palermo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sudtirol

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Palermo

S. Diakité 64'

5/10/2024

Serie B · Round 38Stadio Marco Druso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Sudtirol37%

×Draw27%

Palermo35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SudtirolExpected goals in this matchPalermo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.21

Sudtirol

1.25

Palermo

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 97 away

1.14

creates per match

1.32

1.10

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Sudtirol

1.14

Palermo

1.32

allows per match

Sudtirol

1.10

Palermo

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sudtirol+0.00on par

Palermo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudtirol ↓

Palermo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sudtirol or draw

65%

Sudtirol or Palermo

73%

Draw or Palermo

63%

Winning margin

Sudtirol wins by 2+

16%

Palermo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sudtirol 1+ goals

71%

Sudtirol 2+ goals

36%

Sudtirol 3+ goals

13%

Palermo 1+ goals

70%

Palermo 2+ goals

34%

Palermo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sudtirol (draw refunded)

51%

Palermo (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudtirol at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudtirol attack 1.14 + Palermo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Palermo attack 1.32 + Sudtirol defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sudtirol scores more

37%

level

27%

Palermo scores more

35%

Sudtirol at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sudtirol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

F. Ranocchia

Palermo · M

7.9

Match Events

19'

21'

52'

59'

60'

61'

L. Lonardi← R. Odogwu

64'

S. Diakité↳ J. Segre

72'

D. Casiraghi← A. Mallamo

73'

K. Vinetot← R. Kofler

74'

Kevin Vinetot

79'

E. Soleri← M. Brunori

83'

N. Rauti← A. Masiello

84'

Salvatore Molina

86'

Simone Davì

89'

L. Henderson← R. Insigne

90+5'

Edoardo Soleri

90+1'

L. Mancuso← F. Di Francesco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SudtirolPalermo

Overview

54%Possession46%

8Total Shots7

2Corners9

14Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots7

1On Target4

4Off Target3

3Blocked0

4Inside Box4

4Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

510Total Passes438

448Accurate Passes360

88%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls13

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0