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Sudtirol vs Genoa — Serie B 2018

Sudtirol
Sudtirol
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Genoa
Genoa
5/1/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 35Stadio Marco Druso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sudtirol32%
×Draw29%
Genoa39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sudtirol
1.04
Genoa
1.18

Genoa creates 13% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sudtirol
1.14
Genoa
1.26

allows per match

Sudtirol
1.10
Genoa
0.95

finishing

Sudtirol+0.00on par
Genoa+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudtirol ↓

Genoa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sudtirol or draw
61%
Sudtirol or Genoa
71%
Draw or Genoa
68%

Winning margin

Sudtirol wins by 2+
12%
Genoa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sudtirol 1+ goals
65%
Sudtirol 2+ goals
28%
Sudtirol 3+ goals
9%
Genoa 1+ goals
69%
Genoa 2+ goals
33%
Genoa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sudtirol (draw refunded)
45%
Genoa (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudtirol at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Genoa away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudtirol attack 1.14 + Genoa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Genoa attack 1.26 + Sudtirol defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sudtirol scores more
32%
level
29%
Genoa scores more
39%

Genoa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Genoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Sudtirol 0–0 Genoa

Sudtirol and Genoa drew 0-0 in Serie B on May 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Marco Druso in Bozen.