Sudtirol 0–1 Avellino: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sudtirol

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Avellino

T. Biasci 10'

11/29/2025

Serie B · Round 14Stadio Marco Druso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Sudtirol46%

×Draw28%

Avellino27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SudtirolExpected goals in this matchAvellino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.96

Sudtirol

1.35

Avellino

0.96

Sudtirol creates 41% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 21 away

1.14

creates per match

0.81

1.10

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Sudtirol

1.14

Avellino

0.81

allows per match

Sudtirol

1.10

Avellino

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sudtirol+0.00on par

Avellino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudtirol ↓

Avellino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sudtirol or draw

73%

Sudtirol or Avellino

72%

Draw or Avellino

54%

Winning margin

Sudtirol wins by 2+

22%

Avellino wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sudtirol 1+ goals

74%

Sudtirol 2+ goals

39%

Sudtirol 3+ goals

15%

Avellino 1+ goals

62%

Avellino 2+ goals

25%

Avellino 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sudtirol (draw refunded)

63%

Avellino (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudtirol at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Avellino away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudtirol attack 1.14 + Avellino defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Avellino attack 0.81 + Sudtirol defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sudtirol scores more

46%

level

28%

Avellino scores more

27%

Sudtirol at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sudtirol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

79

S. Molina

Sudtirol · M

7.9

Match Events

10'

T. Biasci↳ M. Palumbo

17'

Simone Tronchin

41'

Mamadou Coulibaly

46'

J. Martini← S. Tronchin

46'

K. Zedadka← S. Davi

46'

F. Tait← M. Coulibaly

62'

J. Kumi← L. Palmiero

65'

E. Pecorino← R. Odogwu

67'

Emanuele Pecorino

68'

V. Crespi← T. Biasci

68'

R. Insigne← G. Tutino

70'

Giovanni Daffara

74'

H. El Kaouakibi← A. Masiello

79'

M. Gyabuaa← D. Sounas

80'

M. Besaggio← M. Palumbo

90+3'

Silvio Merkaj

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SudtirolAvellino

Overview

61%Possession39%

20Total Shots6

1.67Expected Goals (xG)0.77

10Corners2

22Fouls12

Shots

20Total Shots6

3On Target1

15Off Target3

2Blocked2

12Inside Box4

8Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

458Total Passes319

341Accurate Passes217

74%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

22Fouls12

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0