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Sudtirol U19 vs Reggiana U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Sudtirol U19
Sudtirol U19
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Reggiana U19
Reggiana U19
2/3/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 17Maso Ronco Campo E

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sudtirol U1956%
×Draw23%
Reggiana U1921%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sudtirol U19
1.85
Reggiana U19
1.04

Sudtirol U19 creates 78% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 86 away

creates per match

Sudtirol U19
1.42
Reggiana U19
1.06

allows per match

Sudtirol U19
1.02
Reggiana U19
2.29

finishing

Sudtirol U19+0.00on par
Reggiana U19+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudtirol U19 ↓

Reggiana U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sudtirol U19 or draw
79%
Sudtirol U19 or Reggiana U19
77%
Draw or Reggiana U19
44%

Winning margin

Sudtirol U19 wins by 2+
32%
Reggiana U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sudtirol U19 1+ goals
84%
Sudtirol U19 2+ goals
55%
Sudtirol U19 3+ goals
28%
Reggiana U19 1+ goals
65%
Reggiana U19 2+ goals
28%
Reggiana U19 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sudtirol U19 (draw refunded)
73%
Reggiana U19 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudtirol U19 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

Reggiana U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudtirol U19 attack 1.42 + Reggiana U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.85

Reggiana U19 attack 1.06 + Sudtirol U19 defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sudtirol U19 scores more
56%
level
23%
Reggiana U19 scores more
21%

Sudtirol U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sudtirol U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sudtirol U19 vs Reggiana U19

Reggiana U19 beat Sudtirol U19 3-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Maso Ronco Campo E in Appiano Sulla Strada Del Vino.