Sudtirol U19 0–0 Modena U19: Result & Stats

Sudtirol U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Modena U19

4/18/2026

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sudtirol U1942%

×Draw25%

Modena U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sudtirol U19Expected goals in this matchModena U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.29

Sudtirol U19

1.48

Modena U19

1.29

Sudtirol U19 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 31 away

1.42

creates per match

1.55

1.02

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Sudtirol U19

1.42

Modena U19

1.55

allows per match

Sudtirol U19

1.02

Modena U19

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sudtirol U19+0.00on par

Modena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudtirol U19 ↓

Modena U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sudtirol U19 or draw

67%

Sudtirol U19 or Modena U19

75%

Draw or Modena U19

58%

Winning margin

Sudtirol U19 wins by 2+

20%

Modena U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sudtirol U19 1+ goals

77%

Sudtirol U19 2+ goals

43%

Sudtirol U19 3+ goals

19%

Modena U19 1+ goals

72%

Modena U19 2+ goals

37%

Modena U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sudtirol U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Modena U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudtirol U19 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

Modena U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudtirol U19 attack 1.42 + Modena U19 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48

Modena U19 attack 1.55 + Sudtirol U19 defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sudtirol U19 scores more

42%

level

25%

Modena U19 scores more

33%

Sudtirol U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sudtirol U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff