Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sudtirol U19 vs Cremonese U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Sudtirol U19
Sudtirol U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Cremonese U19
Cremonese U19
1/13/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 14Maso Ronco Campo E

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sudtirol U1929%
×Draw26%
Cremonese U1946%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sudtirol U19
1.12
Cremonese U19
1.49

Cremonese U19 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 55 away

creates per match

Sudtirol U19
1.42
Cremonese U19
1.96

allows per match

Sudtirol U19
1.02
Cremonese U19
0.82

finishing

Sudtirol U19+0.00on par
Cremonese U19+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudtirol U19 ↓

Cremonese U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sudtirol U19 or draw
54%
Sudtirol U19 or Cremonese U19
74%
Draw or Cremonese U19
71%

Winning margin

Sudtirol U19 wins by 2+
11%
Cremonese U19 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sudtirol U19 1+ goals
67%
Sudtirol U19 2+ goals
31%
Sudtirol U19 3+ goals
10%
Cremonese U19 1+ goals
77%
Cremonese U19 2+ goals
44%
Cremonese U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sudtirol U19 (draw refunded)
38%
Cremonese U19 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudtirol U19 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

Cremonese U19 away — creates 1.96, concedes 0.82 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudtirol U19 attack 1.42 + Cremonese U19 defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.12

Cremonese U19 attack 1.96 + Sudtirol U19 defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sudtirol U19 scores more
29%
level
26%
Cremonese U19 scores more
46%

Cremonese U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cremonese U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Sudtirol U19 1–3 Cremonese U19

Cremonese U19 beat Sudtirol U19 3-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Maso Ronco Campo E in Appiano Sulla Strada Del Vino.