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Sudtirol U19 vs Alessandria U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Sudtirol U19
Sudtirol U19
FT
2 – 0
Alessandria U19
Alessandria U19
10/28/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 6Campo Maso Ronco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Sudtirol U1957%
×Draw22%
Alessandria U1921%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sudtirol U19
1.93
Alessandria U19
1.09

Sudtirol U19 creates 77% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 43 away

creates per match

Sudtirol U19
1.42
Alessandria U19
1.16

allows per match

Sudtirol U19
1.02
Alessandria U19
2.44

finishing

Sudtirol U19+0.00on par
Alessandria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudtirol U19 ↓

Alessandria U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sudtirol U19 or draw
79%
Sudtirol U19 or Alessandria U19
78%
Draw or Alessandria U19
43%

Winning margin

Sudtirol U19 wins by 2+
33%
Alessandria U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sudtirol U19 1+ goals
85%
Sudtirol U19 2+ goals
57%
Sudtirol U19 3+ goals
30%
Alessandria U19 1+ goals
66%
Alessandria U19 2+ goals
30%
Alessandria U19 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sudtirol U19 (draw refunded)
73%
Alessandria U19 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudtirol U19 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

Alessandria U19 away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.44 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudtirol U19 attack 1.42 + Alessandria U19 defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.93

Alessandria U19 attack 1.16 + Sudtirol U19 defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sudtirol U19 scores more
57%
level
22%
Alessandria U19 scores more
21%

Sudtirol U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sudtirol U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Sudtirol U19 2–0 Alessandria U19

Sudtirol U19 beat Alessandria U19 2-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Maso Ronco in Appiano.