Sudeva 1–1 Real Kashmir: Result & Stats | I-League

Sudeva

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Kashmir

1/12/2023

I-League · Round 11Chhatrasal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sudeva28%

×Draw27%

Real Kashmir45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SudevaExpected goals in this matchReal Kashmir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.37

Sudeva

1.03

Real Kashmir

1.37

Real Kashmir creates 33% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 59 away

0.92

creates per match

1.12

1.62

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Sudeva

0.92

Real Kashmir

1.12

allows per match

Sudeva

1.62

Real Kashmir

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sudeva+0.00on par

Real Kashmir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudeva ↓

Real Kashmir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sudeva or draw

55%

Sudeva or Real Kashmir

73%

Draw or Real Kashmir

72%

Winning margin

Sudeva wins by 2+

11%

Real Kashmir wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Sudeva 1+ goals

64%

Sudeva 2+ goals

28%

Sudeva 3+ goals

9%

Real Kashmir 1+ goals

75%

Real Kashmir 2+ goals

40%

Real Kashmir 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sudeva (draw refunded)

39%

Real Kashmir (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudeva at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

Real Kashmir away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.15 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudeva attack 0.92 + Real Kashmir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.03

Real Kashmir attack 1.12 + Sudeva defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sudeva scores more

28%

level

27%

Real Kashmir scores more

45%

Real Kashmir at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Kashmir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Sudeva 1–1 Real Kashmir

Sudeva and Real Kashmir drew 1-1 in I-League on January 12, 2023.

The match was played at Chhatrasal Stadium in New Delhi.

Sudeva vs Real Kashmir — I-League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

I-League: Sudeva 1–1 Real Kashmir