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Sudeva vs NEROCA — I-League 2019

Sudeva
Sudeva
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
NEROCA
NEROCA
3/16/2021I-LeagueI-League · Relegation Round - 3Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sudeva40%
×Draw25%
NEROCA35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sudeva
1.51
NEROCA
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sudeva
0.92
NEROCA
1.20

allows per match

Sudeva
1.62
NEROCA
2.11

finishing

Sudeva+0.00on par
NEROCA+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudeva ↓

NEROCA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sudeva or draw
65%
Sudeva or NEROCA
75%
Draw or NEROCA
60%

Winning margin

Sudeva wins by 2+
19%
NEROCA wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sudeva 1+ goals
78%
Sudeva 2+ goals
44%
Sudeva 3+ goals
19%
NEROCA 1+ goals
76%
NEROCA 2+ goals
41%
NEROCA 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sudeva (draw refunded)
53%
NEROCA (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudeva at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

NEROCA away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudeva attack 0.92 + NEROCA defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.51

NEROCA attack 1.20 + Sudeva defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sudeva scores more
40%
level
25%
NEROCA scores more
35%

Sudeva at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sudeva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sudeva vs NEROCA

Sudeva beat NEROCA 1-0 in I-League on March 16, 2021.

The match was played at Kalyani Stadium in Kalyani.