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Sudeva vs Minerva Punjab — I-League 2019

Sudeva
Sudeva
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Minerva Punjab
Minerva Punjab
2/5/2023I-LeagueI-League · Round 5Chhatrasal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sudeva27%
×Draw25%
Minerva Punjab48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sudeva
1.11
Minerva Punjab
1.57

Minerva Punjab creates 41% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 33 away

creates per match

Sudeva
0.92
Minerva Punjab
1.52

allows per match

Sudeva
1.62
Minerva Punjab
1.30

finishing

Sudeva+0.00on par
Minerva Punjab+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudeva ↓

Minerva Punjab →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sudeva or draw
52%
Sudeva or Minerva Punjab
75%
Draw or Minerva Punjab
73%

Winning margin

Sudeva wins by 2+
10%
Minerva Punjab wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Sudeva 1+ goals
67%
Sudeva 2+ goals
30%
Sudeva 3+ goals
10%
Minerva Punjab 1+ goals
79%
Minerva Punjab 2+ goals
46%
Minerva Punjab 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sudeva (draw refunded)
36%
Minerva Punjab (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudeva at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

Minerva Punjab away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudeva attack 0.92 + Minerva Punjab defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.11

Minerva Punjab attack 1.52 + Sudeva defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sudeva scores more
27%
level
25%
Minerva Punjab scores more
48%

Minerva Punjab at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Minerva Punjab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Sudeva 1–1 Minerva Punjab

Sudeva and Minerva Punjab drew 1-1 in I-League on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Chhatrasal Stadium in New Delhi.