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Sudeva vs Indian Arrows — I-League 2019

Sudeva
Sudeva
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Indian Arrows
Indian Arrows
3/20/2021I-LeagueI-League · Relegation Round - 4Yuba Bharati Krirangan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sudeva40%
×Draw29%
Indian Arrows31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sudeva
1.19
Indian Arrows
1.02

Sudeva creates 17% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Sudeva
0.92
Indian Arrows
0.42

allows per match

Sudeva
1.62
Indian Arrows
1.46

finishing

Sudeva+0.00on par
Indian Arrows+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudeva ↓

Indian Arrows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sudeva or draw
69%
Sudeva or Indian Arrows
71%
Draw or Indian Arrows
60%

Winning margin

Sudeva wins by 2+
17%
Indian Arrows wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sudeva 1+ goals
70%
Sudeva 2+ goals
33%
Sudeva 3+ goals
12%
Indian Arrows 1+ goals
64%
Indian Arrows 2+ goals
27%
Indian Arrows 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sudeva (draw refunded)
56%
Indian Arrows (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudeva at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

Indian Arrows away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudeva attack 0.92 + Indian Arrows defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.19

Indian Arrows attack 0.42 + Sudeva defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sudeva scores more
40%
level
29%
Indian Arrows scores more
31%

Sudeva at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sudeva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I-League: Sudeva 1–0 Indian Arrows

Sudeva beat Indian Arrows 1-0 in I-League on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Yuba Bharati Krirangan in Kolkata, West Bengal.