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Sudet vs Reipas — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

Sudet
Sudet
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 1
Reipas
Reipas
6/13/2019Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Round 7Kouvolan keskusurheilukenttä (Kouvola)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sudet17%
×Draw18%
Reipas65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sudet
1.16
Reipas
2.44

Reipas creates 110% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 68 away

creates per match

Sudet
0.82
Reipas
1.87

allows per match

Sudet
3.00
Reipas
1.49

finishing

Sudet+0.00on par
Reipas+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudet ↓

Reipas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sudet or draw
35%
Sudet or Reipas
82%
Draw or Reipas
83%

Winning margin

Sudet wins by 2+
6%
Reipas wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Sudet 1+ goals
69%
Sudet 2+ goals
32%
Sudet 3+ goals
11%
Reipas 1+ goals
91%
Reipas 2+ goals
70%
Reipas 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Sudet (draw refunded)
20%
Reipas (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudet at home — creates 0.82, concedes 3.00 · 11 matches

Reipas away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudet attack 0.82 + Reipas defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.16

Reipas attack 1.87 + Sudet defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Sudet scores more
17%
level
18%
Reipas scores more
65%

Reipas at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Reipas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sudet vs Reipas

Reipas beat Sudet 5-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on June 13, 2019.

The match was played at Kouvolan keskusurheilukenttä (Kouvola).