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Sudan vs Niger — Friendlies 2026

Sudan
Sudan
FT
1 – 2
Niger
Niger
8/22/2021FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Al Maktoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sudan43%
×Draw29%
Niger28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sudan
1.22
Niger
0.94

Sudan creates 30% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 16 away

creates per match

Sudan
1.00
Niger
0.88

allows per match

Sudan
1.00
Niger
1.44

finishing

Sudan+0.00on par
Niger+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudan ↓

Niger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sudan or draw
72%
Sudan or Niger
71%
Draw or Niger
57%

Winning margin

Sudan wins by 2+
19%
Niger wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sudan 1+ goals
70%
Sudan 2+ goals
34%
Sudan 3+ goals
12%
Niger 1+ goals
61%
Niger 2+ goals
24%
Niger 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sudan (draw refunded)
60%
Niger (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Niger away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudan attack 1.00 + Niger defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Niger attack 0.88 + Sudan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sudan scores more
43%
level
29%
Niger scores more
28%

Sudan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sudan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sudan vs Niger

Niger beat Sudan 2-1 in Friendlies on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at Al Maktoum Stadium in Dubai.