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Sudan vs Guinea-Bissau — Friendlies 2026

Sudan
Sudan
FT
1 – 0
Guinea-Bissau
Guinea-Bissau
3/22/2024FriendliesFriendlies · World: Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sudan63%
×Draw23%
Guinea-Bissau14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sudan
1.78
Guinea-Bissau
0.71

Sudan creates 151% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sudan
1.00
Guinea-Bissau
0.43

allows per match

Sudan
1.00
Guinea-Bissau
2.57

finishing

Sudan+0.00on par
Guinea-Bissau+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sudan ↓

Guinea-Bissau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sudan or draw
86%
Sudan or Guinea-Bissau
77%
Draw or Guinea-Bissau
37%

Winning margin

Sudan wins by 2+
37%
Guinea-Bissau wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sudan 1+ goals
83%
Sudan 2+ goals
53%
Sudan 3+ goals
26%
Guinea-Bissau 1+ goals
51%
Guinea-Bissau 2+ goals
16%
Guinea-Bissau 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sudan (draw refunded)
81%
Guinea-Bissau (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sudan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Guinea-Bissau away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sudan attack 1.00 + Guinea-Bissau defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.78

Guinea-Bissau attack 0.43 + Sudan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sudan scores more
63%
level
23%
Guinea-Bissau scores more
14%

Sudan at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sudan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Sudan 1–0 Guinea-Bissau

Sudan beat Guinea-Bissau 1-0 in Friendlies on March 22, 2024.