SUD America 0–4 Progreso: Result & Stats

SUD America

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Progreso

11/24/2023

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 24Estadio Obdulio Varela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SUD America27%

×Draw25%

Progreso48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SUD AmericaExpected goals in this matchProgreso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.54

SUD America

1.08

Progreso

1.54

Progreso creates 43% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 17 away

1.03

creates per match

1.88

1.21

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

SUD America

1.03

Progreso

1.88

allows per match

SUD America

1.21

Progreso

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SUD America+0.00on par

Progreso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SUD America ↓

Progreso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

SUD America or draw

52%

SUD America or Progreso

75%

Draw or Progreso

73%

Winning margin

SUD America wins by 2+

10%

Progreso wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

SUD America 1+ goals

66%

SUD America 2+ goals

29%

SUD America 3+ goals

10%

Progreso 1+ goals

79%

Progreso 2+ goals

45%

Progreso 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

SUD America (draw refunded)

36%

Progreso (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SUD America at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.21 · 70 matches

Progreso away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SUD America attack 1.03 + Progreso defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Progreso attack 1.88 + SUD America defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SUD America scores more

27%

level

25%

Progreso scores more

48%

Progreso at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Progreso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff